The fate of Josh Donaldson will be one of the key Blue Jays storylines during the offseason. Donaldson, despite missing over 40 games, he managed to be worth 5 wins above replacement (fWAR). On a Win per plate appearances scale, he would’ve been the ninth most valuable position player (minimum 450 plate appearances). In other words, he’s still one of the best players in the game.
We all know the story. The relatively cheap star who won MVP and has arguably the greatest peak of any Blue Jay. The man who has a very good case for best position player behind Mike Trout. 
Donaldson, however, will be 32 when the season starts, and 33 when his new contract would kick in. The Blue Jays finished with a 76-86 record, the fifth worst in the American League. Both factors make keeping Donaldson for a year tricky business. If you don’t think the Jays have a good shot at the playoffs this year and don’t want to sign him for his services starting at age 33, it would be best to trade him and look to the future.
Offensively, Donaldson was still dynamite with a 149 wRC+, the third best mark of his career. Only 10 hitters had superior park adjusted offence. The biggest red flag was his strikeout rate jumping up to 22.4%. Donaldson hasn’t cracked the 20’s since his limited time in 2012. The big spike occurred in July when he struck out in 29% of plate appearances. The good news is that it’s not an overtly major concern just yet. He posted a swinging strike rate of 10.8% which is slightly above his career average (10.2%). Furthermore, Donaldson’s swing rates at pitches outside the zone remained consistent with his career. It’s something to watch for in 2018. With the bat, Donaldson remains one of the most dangerous sluggers.
Defensively, it’s a different story. Donaldson’s UZR/150 has been falling for four straight years. Over the past three seasons, Donaldson’s UZR/150 ranks fifth among qualified third baseman (17 players). While that’s good, he entered negative territory in regards to UZR this season. Donaldson might still be a capable fielder at third, it’s clear where he’s headed. He’s almost 32 and defence doesn’t get better with age. DRS tells a similar story. A player who saved 11 runs through defence in 2015, Donaldson didn’t get to half of that in 2016 and 2017 combined. The declining defence suggests he will be a below average defender at third and is likely headed to a 1B/DH role in two to three years.
The question to extend Donaldson is a challenging one. But it really comes down to where one sees the team. Challenging the Yankees and Red Sox for the division title seems like a stretch barring a major acquisition. The Wild Card is the most likely scenario if the Jays plan on competing.
Before digging into his future contract, let’s attempt to approximate how much he is worth now and in the future. There are a few of assumptions.
- Donaldson is projected to be worth 6.3 Wins Above Replacement based on Steamer Projections.
- Arbitration Award: $20.7M (MLBTR estimate)
- Donaldson Will Receive a Qualifying Offer. It’s value will be $10M based on past research of draft picks.
- Cost of War This Season: $9M
- Cost of War at Trade Deadline: $18M
With $46M in surplus value, Donaldson has considerable value. Before looking into the type of haul he could bring, one must assess how much he is worth at the trade deadline. The trade deadline premium is most likely a real thing and the cost per win is roughly double. Donaldson will have about 2 more Wins to contribute and just under $7M left to be paid.
Looking at the numbers, it is clear that Donaldson should be moved before the season begins. He’s roughly $15M more valuable before the season than at the trade deadline. However, one would have to weight the chances of the Blue Jays doing well enough to be in a good position at the trade deadline where keeping Donaldson is a better solution.
Keep in mind these method aren’t perfect. Furthermore, Donaldson’s value isn’t limited to on field performance. When Yoenis Cespedes was negotiating his contract, off field value came into play for their pitch. Effect on attendance, social media among other factors played a role in his valuation. He’s the type of player that gets fans in their seats. Furthermore, the Blue Jays might find it be more valuable to retain Donaldson considering they have repeated they have postseason aspirations. Some feel the Jays with better injury luck could be wild card favourites.
Comparing Donaldson’s value and the value of prospects brings up many different angles. The following prospect valuation model used is based on many assumptions and should not be taken as fact. The important part is that it uses historical prospects, their grades, and their performance to get an idea of prospect value.
An average (50 Future Value) hitting prospect or pitching prospect are worth roughly $20M and $14M respectively. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a top 3 hitting prospect putting his valuation between $60-$70M. Taking into account cost relative to performance or projected performance, Josh Donaldson isn’t even the most valuable asset on the Jays.
If the Jays plan on moving Josh Donaldson, getting back elite hitting talent is unlikely. A top pitching prospect is worth similarly to Donaldson and a top hitting prospect even more. Really, it’s more like two mediocre prospects and maybe a low level prospect is what the Jays are looking at. That would add depth to the prospect pool.
Established, team controlled talent is the most desired asset in the game. If the Jays wanted to bring in someone with somewhat of an MLB resume and was cost controlled, it could be argued that they would have to add.
Take pitcher Luke Weaver for example on a team rumored to be in on Donaldson. Steamer currently projects him for 2.7 fWAR across 36 games and 26 starts. Weaver has had a promising start to his career. Assuming even no improvement, Weaver is a more valuable asset given his production relative to his salary. His teammate Jack Flaherty, however, is still more of a prospect. He might be MLB ready, but with only 21 innings at the MLB level, his future in the MLB is still in doubt. The former is what the Jays would love to have. The latter is more realistic.
The Jays are looking at prospects ranked after the top 25 league wide if not lower. If Jays fans are dreaming of a major haul, they should stop dreaming. Players with one year left before free agency just aren’t all that valuable. Bryce Harper would return less than Trea Turner. Similarly, Josh Donaldson, less than Marcus Stroman.
Moreover, adding some form of MLB level talent has it’s own valuation. Similar to arriving at Josh Donaldson’s surplus value, one could do the same for any other player. Sticking with the Cardinals example, if Randall Grichuk was part of the return, what type of value does he have? Assuming you think he is worth 1 win over replacement next season, his surplus value is roughly $6.2M after arbitration. Stephen Piscotty is another intriguing option and makes the most sense from the Jays perspective. Piscotty will make $1M in 2018, followed by $7-7.2M per year from 2019-2022. He has an option (not known whether team or player) in 2023 but there is a $1M buyout. Piscotty plays right field and has been an above average hitter (112 wRC+) in 1306 plate appearances. In 2016, he was worth 2.8 Wins Above Replacement but cratered to replacement level this past season in 107 games. Steamer projects him to be worth 1 win next season. Assuming he manages to be worth 1 win for the next three seasons, Piscotty is valued at roughly $10M in surplus value. If you think he will be better (like me) given his improvements in core hitter traits (less swinging strikes, more walks), then he could be worth nearly double that. If the Jays are to acquire a player, it should be someone with upside who is locked down for cheap, who can step in right now and contribute, and be a fine bench option five years down the road. Lastly, over on Fangraphs, Dave Cameron took a stab at a type of trade the Jays could make if they do intend on competing.
Other teams likely to have interest in adding Donaldson during the offseason include those with poor options at third and want to contend. This includes the San Francisco Giants, who seem to be all in on Giancarlo Stanton, Los Angeles Angels, and to a lesser extent, New York Mets.
Lastly, the Jays also bet on the market drying up. The MLB might legitimately be in the golden generation of third baseman right now. If Donaldson is only a win improvement over what a team has, using assets a position of greater need might be the better play. JD Martinez is not Josh Donaldson but that sort of gives an idea of what happens when a market collapses. Furthermore, the Orioles plans with Manny Machado might make things complicated. If he’s on the open market, there’s a greater supply of elite third baseman.
Looking at past trades is a difficult proposition because there are very few players of Donaldson’s caliber who are moved. Jason Heyward comes somewhat close as he had been worth 5.1 Wins above replacement before being shipped off to St. Louis. However, he was worth 6 fewer wins in the three year period preceding the trade than Donaldson. There are few superstars, and even fewer superstar trades. In that transaction, the Braves also sent reliever Jordan Walden. The Braves received Shelby Miller, a reclamation project of sort, and a prospect in Tyrell Jenkins. Jenkins was considered a 50 FV prospect at the time by current Braves front office man Kiley McDaniels. Recalling the chart above, that’s a $14M asset. Shelby Miller was projected for 0.8 Wins above replacement and was the most interesting player in the trade. He posted 2.4 WAR in 2013 but only 0.6 in 2014. He had four years of team control remaining. If you thought you were getting Shelby Miller 2014, you’d be disappointed. If 2013, you’d be elated. Miller ended up posting 3.4 Wins above replacement and was eventually traded to Arizona in one of the most lopsided trades. Heyward, making $7.8M, had $40.7M in surplus value. Walden, a reliever, was projected for 0.5 WAR. This was a fine return for Atlanta. Even if Miller was only managed 6 Wins in four years, him being relatively cheap would’ve had him worth close to $30M in surplus value.
Trading Donaldson won’t be an easy task. There is little precedent for players of his caliber to be moved. In the final year of his contract and one of the best players in the game, Donaldson can be a difference maker anywhere. Whether the market is strong remains to be seen. Blue Jay fans shouldn’t expect a top 10 prospect coming back or a good young player. A serviceable player and maybe a low end prospect or a couple of top 50 prospects is what the Blue Jays are looking at. For Shapiro and the rest of the Jays management staff, weighing the return versus odds of making the playoffs will be the question to ask.
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